Guest essay by Vijay Jayaraj

When a purported climate crisis dominates much of the discourse of public policy, the trap of attributing every ecological issue to climate change easily ensnares anyone who fails to note the abundant evidence to the contrary.

Over the past few decades, we have witnessed remarkable success stories of species being brought back from the brink of extinction—stories that defy the popular media narrative that a climate modestly warmer than the Little Ice Age is killing our planet’s life forms.

From the Brink of Extinction

The iconic polar bear, long heralded as the unofficial emblem of climate advocacy, has now multiplied in a remarkable way despite media houses like NBC claiming that they are on an “extinction path”.

In certain Arctic regions, these ursine sovereigns of the North are thriving in greater numbers during periods of diminished sea ice coverage—a phenomenon that challenges conventional wisdom about their habitat requirements.

Down south, the verdant, equatorial realms of India are witnessing a resurgence of the majestic Bengal tiger. Being apex predators and linchpins of their ecosystems, the tigers’ burgeoning numbers often herald an expansion of forests as well.

Nonetheless, it was not long ago that the New York Times tried to mislead Western readers about the state of these beasts with a fearmongering article titled “Bengal Tigers May Not Survive Climate Change.”

India has also managed to help the population of the greater one-horned rhinoceros to increase from 200 to 2,600!

In the picturesque Iberian Peninsula of Spain and Portugal—where I’ve worked as a wildlife ecologist—the Iberian lynx has experienced a meteoric rise, surging more than tenfold over the past two decades. This extraordinary resurgence is hailed by the scientific community as unparalleled in the realm of feline conservation.

Also staging a remarkable comeback are the iconic curlews, an avian species once teetering on the brink of local extinction in Northern Ireland’s lake system known as the Lough Erne and the uplands of the Antrim Plateau. Conservation experts attribute this phoenix-like revival to strategic habitat improvements.

In the nearby rugged expanse of Scotland’s Affric Highlands, a mere stone’s throw from my former abode, rewilding initiatives have spurred an avian resurgence. The enigmatic black grouse, along with several other species, have reached a population zenith unseen in nearly two decades.

In light of these remarkable recoveries, a compelling question emerges: How do these species manage to increase their numbers during what is widely characterized as an era of unprecedented climatic adversity?

Successful Conservation Rests on Sound Science, Not Climate Myth

Successful conservation requires a deep understanding of the specific needs of species, their ecosystems and the threats they face. The scientific foundation of conservation biology draws from various fields, including ecology, genetics, wildlife biology and environmental science.

Researchers use advanced techniques to study population dynamics, habitat requirements and genetic characteristics of species and identify the most critical threats to a species’ survival. Possible interventions are then prioritized accordingly.

This kind of work by conservation biologists shows the effects of changes in the climate are not as dramatic as portrayed.

A 2016 study published in “Nature Climate Change” analyzed the main drivers of population decline for 8,688 species on the International Union for Conservation of Nature’s Red List of Threatened Species. Excessive exploitation and agricultural practices were the biggest threats, not climate change.

Similarly, a 2018 study found that habitat loss, overexploitation and invasive species were the primary drivers of vertebrate extinction since the year 1500.

Many species can recover if threats more immediate than gradual climatic changes are addressed effectively. Species are proving that they can adapt and thrive if given the space and appropriate protections from over-hunting and other intrusions.

The experience of modern conservation efforts shows that mitigating real dangers to animal populations makes more sense than attempting to reverse or slow climatic changes – an impossible venture in any case. Besides, our relatively warm climate has been beneficial to the growth of the vegetation that sustains the creatures we so treasure.

This commentary was first published at California Globe on November 22, 2024.

Vijay Jayaraj is a Science and Research Associate at the CO₂ Coalition, Arlington, Virginia. He holds an M.S. in environmental sciences from the University of East Anglia and a postgraduate degree in energy management from Robert Gordon University, both in the U.K., and a bachelor’s in engineering from Anna University, India.

By Jo Nova

It’s not even summer and the Australian grid is having heart palpitations.

The Blob are in concert — blackouts might be at hand, and they want us to blame the heat (it’s code for climate change). Let’s get a grip, we’re only talking about a Sydney forecast of 33°C (all of 91F).

The ABC calls this “sweltering” and files it under “extreme weather events”. Channel Nine call it a “major heatwave”, which it might be if it were London.

For most of the last week, the AEMO (Australia Energy Market Operator) has been flashing red lights and ringing the LOR3 bell. That means  they’ve been forecasting a full Level 3 Lack of Reserve, which means they can see blackouts coming. A level 3 is the most serious warning alarm. Not only is there no reserve power available if something goes wrong, there’s not even enough power for normal operations.

A week ago the AEMO saw blackouts coming for Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday — but by hook or by crook with finagling, they’ve got enough promised power now to turn of the sirens, though the lights are still flashing. Think of this an emergency room visit where the heart attack didn’t quite happen today, and probably won’t happen tomorrow, but the patient needs to pay attention.

Quite often in the last few years the AEMO would issue a level 1 warning and forecast a few hundred megawatts of shortage for a couple of hours.  But by yesterday morning, in forecasts for Wednesday’s mildly warm day they were looking down the barrel of a 1,700 MW shortage. The full emergency period was not just an hour or two long but started at 11:30am and ran right through to 7:30pm at night.

And of course, it’s old coal’s fault:

Discussion at WattClarity suggest that Australia is running short of spare coal and gas plants to operate. It’s a combination of forced outages, unforced outages, and some maintenance taking longer than expected. Nearly one third of all thermal units bigger than 150MW in generation are out of action.

So geniuses, if a lack of coal causes blackouts, what’s going to happen when we shut down more coal?

Andrew Forrest’s Squadron Energy said the warning underscored the dangers of an energy system still largely reliant on coal.

“AEMO has confirmed that the combination of high ­temperatures across NSW and Queensland, along with coal plant outages will cause tight electricity supply forecasts in the coming days,” said Squadron boss Rob Wheals. “We know that Australia’s coal fleet is nearing the end of its economic and technical lifespan, with coal plant outages driving high price periods.”

—    By Perry Williams, The Australian Heat spike puts NSW power grid on edge

There’s plenty more of that at Squadron Energy’s site, where they say ““Coal is killing affordability and reliability. Renewables are the answer.” The mystery is why even The Australian thought any of it was worth printing, except as a giggle.

Twenty years of Soviet style management is what is killing our grid

We got exactly what we paid for: Government subsidies to boost unreliable energy have, shock, created an unreliable grid. We used to have enough coal power so they could take a few units out for maintenance and it didn’t matter. But when we pay more for random generators, we drive reliable ones out of business. We then expect the owners to run vast finely tuned 500-ton machines faster and slower all the time to “fit in” with the wind and solar machines we don’t need. This reduces efficiency, which increases their costs, and no doubt the maintenance time.  Then we kill off the long term prospects for the industry, call them stranded assets, and wonder why companies don’t value them, build new ones or fix up the old ones properly.

Crazy subsidies, make for crazy thinking, and then we get Squadron Energy telling us coal is killing affordability…

The Australian Grid is running close to the edge

The latest update suggests the level 3 alarm for Wednesday and Thursday has dropped to a level 2. The AEMO tell us the reserve requirement on Wednesday for our most populated state is 1,202 MW but, not so reassuringly, “the minimum capacity reserve is 0 MW”. That means, they think, that if everything works as expected, and the weather is not hotter than forecast, or more cloudy, or less windy, and nothing breaks, then the system will be just barely OK.

Usually the people in the control room like to have enough spare capacity on call, so if the biggest single generator trips out, the back up is there to keep the lights on. The minimum capacity reserve is not just a nice thing to have, its considered an essential part of normal operation. It’s the difference between the first world and the third world.

REFERENCES

AEMO notice 120894 contained the LOR3 1,731MW notice at 4:37am Monday. Later notice number 120946 updated the situation in NSW and number 120949 has cancelled the LOR3 in NSW for Thursday too. The AEMO have put out something like 1,000 notices in the last three weeks. It didn’t use to be this way.