A fundamental change in K-12 science education has created a huge opportunity for large language models.
via CFACT
October 15, 2024 at 02:30AM
"CCS divides a green movement riven with disagreements as its climate crisis grift starts to fall apart in the face of reality. Capturing CO2 and burying it in the ground has been described by one influential green think tank as a “colossal waste of money”
via climate science
October 15, 2024 at 01:41AM
Buying shares in wind and solar manufacturers makes horseracing and cocaine habits look like canny investments. Big wind turbine makers like Vestas and Siemens have destroyed $billions worth of value for their shareholders, as input costs skyrocket and revenues crash, smashing share prices along the way.
Steve Goreham is an analyst who has been watching this space for some time. In the piece below, Steve points out that the only way of making a small fortune investing in the wind and solar scam is to start out with a very large one.
Why Are Renewable Equipment Companies Such Poor Investments?
Real Clear Energy
Steve Goreham
16 September 2024
Headlines promo points out that the only way of making a small fortune te renewable energy equipment companies as part of efforts to transition to Net Zero carbon dioxide emissions by 2050. Wind and solar system providers, electric vehicle manufacturers, green hydrogen producers, and other green equipment firms form a growing share of world industry. But renewable equipment firms suffer poor market returns, so investors should beware.
The Renewable Energy Industrial Index (RENIXX) is a global stock index of the 30 largest renewable energy industrial companies in the world by stock market capitalization. Current RENIXX companies include Enphase Energy, First Solar, Orsted, Plug Power, Tesla, and Vestas.
IWR of Germany established the RENIXX on May 1, 2006, with an initial value of 1,000 points. This month, the RENIXX stood at 1,013 points, essentially zero value growth over the last 18 years. In comparison, the S&P 500 Index more than quadrupled over the same period. The RENIXX is down three years in a row from 2021, losing about half its value.
Wind turbine manufacturers faced serious financial challenges over the last three years, even with rising sales. Rising costs, high interest rates, and project delays continue to impact the profitability of wind projects and equipment suppliers.
The stock of Denmark-based Vestas Wind Systems, the world’s largest supplier, rose only 7% over the last 16 years, and its stock price has fallen 58% from a high in 2021.
Vestas struggled to make a profit in 2022 and 2023 and suspended dividends to shareholders.
Other major wind suppliers have also been poor investments for shareholders. The stock of Siemens Gamesa, the number two turbine maker, is down 65 percent since a peak in 2021. Gamesa reported a loss of €4.4 billion in 2023 and received a €7.5 billion bailout from the German government that same year. Other top wind suppliers suffered major stock price declines since 2021, including Goldwind of China (down 77%) and Nordex of Germany (-36%).
Eighty percent of the world’s solar panels are manufactured in China and the top six suppliers reside in China. The solar panel industry is beset by overcapacity and severe competition. Stock prices of the top seven suppliers have all declined by more than 50 percent since 2021. The stock of US firm First Solar has risen since 2021 but remains below its all-time high price reached in 2008.
Tesla, which was founded in 2003, remained the only pure-play, publicly traded EV stock until 2018. By the end of 2021, Tesla’s value had soared to over $1 Trillion, boasting a market value more than Toyota, Volkswagen, Mercedes-Benz, General Motors, Ford, BMW, and Honda combined. But Tesla is the exception.
But in most cases, electric vehicle (EV) companies have been very poor investments. Between 2020 and 2024, 31 EV companies went public on US stock exchanges. Only one of these 31 companies, the Chinese firm Li Auto, saw its price rise since the initial public offering (IPO). Thirty EV firms saw their stock prices fall, most precipitously.
EV company price declines from the IPO price include Fisker (-99%), Nikola (-94%), NIO (-50%), Lucid Group (-75%), and Rivian (-88%). Six others of the 31 companies went bankrupt. Tesla and Chinese firms BYD and Li Auto are the only EV firms profitable today.
ChargePoint is the world’s largest dedicated EV charger company (behind EV manufacturer Tesla), with over 25,000 charging stations in the US and Canada. ChargePoint went public in 2021 by merging with Switchback Energy Acquisition Corporation, valued at $2.4 billion. The firm’s value today is about $585 million, down 76% since 2021. For fiscal year 2024, ChargePoint lost $458 million on revenue of $507 million.
It’s not clear that any charging company can make money. High-speed, 50-kilowatt EV chargers cost about five times as much as traditional gasoline pumps. Eighty percent of EV charging is done at home, reducing the demand for public charging. ChargePoint, EVgo, Wallbox, Allego, and Blink Charging are all valued today at small fractions of their original IPO price. No EV charger firm is profitable, even after continuing to receive large government subsidies.
Plug Power is a leading supplier of hydrogen energy systems, including battery-cells for hydrogen vehicles and electrolyzers to produce green hydrogen fuel. Founded in 1997, the company went public in October 1999 at a split-adjusted price of about $160 per share.
But during its 27-year history, Plug Power has never turned a profit. According to financial reports, the firm lost $1.45 billion in 2024, up from a loss of $43.8 million in 2018. Its current stock price is under two dollars per share.
Traditional established firms are finding that renewable equipment can be poor business. In 2023, Ford lost $4.7 billion on sales of 116,000 electric vehicles, or over $40,000 per vehicle. General Electric’s wind turbine business lost $1.1 billion in 2023.
The US federal government provided subsidies to renewable equipment companies of between $7 billion and $16 billion per year between 2010 and 2022. But the Cato Institute estimates that because of the passage of the Inflation Reduction Act in 2022, subsidies will skyrocket to about $80 billion in fiscal year 2025.
Without the fear of human-caused climate change and a rising level of government subsidies and mandates, many of these green companies would not exist. It’s doubtful that carbon dioxide pipelines, heavy electric trucks, offshore wind systems, green hydrogen fuel equipment, and EV charging stations would be viable businesses in unsubsidized capital markets.
During this last year, leading financial firms pulled back on their climate change pledges. Bank of America, JP Morgan, State Street, and Pimco withdrew from Climate Action 100+, which seeks to force companies and investment funds to address climate issues and adopt environmental, social, and governance (ESG) policies. But it’s difficult to invest in renewable equipment companies when they are losing money.
Real Clear Energy
via STOP THESE THINGS
October 15, 2024 at 01:31AM
“Alaska’s ‘capitalism in transition’ requires one final piece of legislation before reaching, arguably, the point of no return: a Renewable Portfolio Standard (RPS).”
Alaska has no shortage of recommendations from local environmental non-governmental organizations (ENGOs) whose purpose is to implement global Malthusian degrowth. These plans come at great cost to our future and way of life as free Alaskans.
In March of 2022, “Alaska’s Renewable Energy Future – New Jobs, Affordable Energy” was released, a report on behalf of the Regenerative Economies Working Group – Alaska Climate Alliance / Fairbanks Climate Action Coalition. Imagining themselves as Alaska’s overlords, the study examined
the potential for 100% clean renewable energy to replace fossil fuels energy in Alaska by 2050 and its attendant benefits including more jobs, lower energy prices, higher energy security and the potential for renewable resources to support the equitable transition to hydrogen-based fuels for the aviation and maritime industry.
Studies, studies…. Competitive energies need freedom; uncompetitive energies need studies and government.
Alaska’s Renewable Energy Future and Global Agenda Align
This plan highlights key strategies for the state to “accelerate the transition to a clean, renewable energy future,” including:
- Undertaking a comprehensive statewide strategic policy and planning effort, an explicit goal of transitioning to 100% clean renewable energy by 2050, using the Integrated Resource Plan required by legislation that established the Electric Reliability Organization (ERO)
- Enact legislation to require electric utilities to achieve 100% clean renewable energy by 2050 and to regularly measure and report progress toward that goal, including the adoption of reasonable Renewable Portfolio Standards, e.g., 80% by 2040
- Seek Alaska Permanent Fund support for publication of environmental disclosures of its investments to ensure portfolio investments are assessing and addressing climate risks.
- Green Bank – A Green Bank is a capital management program that leverages limited public dollars to attract greater private investment in clean energy.
An underlying theme of the report is to finance the “Just Transition to a Regenerative Economy.” But what does this mean? Since the global pandemic, the idea to upend and replace capitalism has become normalized and accepted. Chief among those calling to replace capitalism is the Trilateral Commission, which published a report in June of 2022 by the Task Force on Global Capitalism in Transition.
The report references a 2020 survey wherein 56% agreed “capitalism does more harm than good.” The survey contacted over thirty-four thousand people in twenty-eight countries, including Russia and communist China. The Trilateral Commission report goes on to state the growing concerns about whether market-based economies can handle major challenges, with the first on their list being climate change, stating climate change is the “greatest issue facing humanity in the 21st century” and the “climate crisis is primarily caused by the rise of fossil-fueled economies.”
The executive summary for the Trilateral Commission report states: “The time was right for this effort. Despite capitalism’s manifest positive impact on prosperity and well-being, many people are frustrated by its inability to handle some of the greatest challenges facing society. In particular, there are growing concerns about whether market-based economies will be able to adequately address climate change, the disruptions triggered by the digital revolution, and rising inequalities. Moving toward a more sustainable and inclusive capitalism is thus a defining challenge of our age.”
The up-front costs as listed in Alaska’s Renewable Energy Future are “on the order of $128B over 30 years, can be mitigated by federal and state co-investment.” Contrast this with the $3.5T additional annual capital investment required between now and 2050 to build a net-zero global economy, with investment totaling only $1.8 trillion in 2023, the inflation yet to be seen with exponential increased costs is unfathomable, with no expected real returns or metrics of success.
Faced with extraordinary costs to implement their experiment, our masters must throw away traditional capitalism and replace it with Marxism repackaged as the “regenerative economy.” Other terms for the rebranded theft include inclusive capitalism, stakeholder capitalism and sustainable capitalism.
The only way to get this much money into the system to pay for something that no one wants would be to steal it from unsuspecting citizens. Our economy, resources, supply chains, energy infrastructure, food production and agriculture must be stolen and fed back to us under their new terms and control. The Trilateral Commission’s recommendations to achieve net zero include “Establish new rules of the road” by “Accelerating green finance” and by use of the government where “Central banks should establish as standard practice regular and universal climate stress tests to assess climate risks across financial systems.”
Additionally, they state:
Establishing a price on carbon is an obvious path toward solving the green transition challenge from an economics perspective. Setting a price incentivizes firms, entrepreneurs, and researchers to innovate.
We already see this in the way that activist investors used Governor Mike Dunleavy by subjecting the state to carbon extortion in exchange for resource development.
There is a huge disconnect in what environmental activists see as an existential threat to humanity versus how everyday Americans are polling. In the latest Gallup Poll on the “Most Important Problem,” almost half of Americans at 44% list economic issues as the most important problem where Environment/Pollution/Climate change no longer even registers on the poll <0.5% in September, down from a consistent 2% in the 6 months prior. Their plans very clearly stated are to exacerbate the very issue most Americans are concerned about (economy), to try to solve the issue that doesn’t concern Americans in the least (climate).
A “Regenerative” Economy?
According to the World Economic Forum, “Only a regenerative economy can build sustainable, inclusive prosperity.” As covered previously, sustainability is a degrowth construct, and inclusive means equal outcomes for everyone. According to the Climate Justice Alliance “A People’s Orientation to a Regenerative Economy: “We have long advocated for climate justice through a Just Transition. The emerging Green New Deal (GND) has created an opportunity to deepen this work.”
The Fairbanks Climate Action Coalition states
If our current economy is producing climate change, pollution, and inequality, what kind of economy can provide good livelihoods that work both for people and the planet? This working group is focused on finding answers to that question that make sense for Alaska—we seek to redefine the goals of the economy away from maximizing income for the wealthy few towards achieving broad-based equity, community health, and ecological sustainability.
According to APlanet, a regenerative economy is “the economic model that represents an alternative to the current economic system in response to its environmental, social and economic shortcomings.” They go on: “To ensure environmental conservation and promote a universal improvement in quality of life, it is necessary to reduce both GHG emissions and the material footprint” and under “other relevant concepts to consider,” they list degrowth or degrowth theory, doughnut economics and a circular economy.
Enabling the Plan
It is interesting that they use the word “regenerative” while calling for net zero. There is nothing regenerative or environmentally friendly about the materials required for the so-called transition. To my oil and gas industry friends who believe we need to buy into carbon capture/sequestration, and that CO2 is something that we need to control, know that degrowthers mean zero.
Alaska Climate Alliance, ENGOs et al. have made great progress in getting laws passed to enable this plan. In 2020, SB 123 was signed into law creating the unelected regional Electric Reliability Organization. According to Renewable Energy Alaska Project
The new ERO will establish and oversee region-wide reliability standards as well as non-discriminatory interconnection standards that will make it easier for independent power producers to access the transmission system to sell renewable energy.
This legislation passed with only one Republican voting nay.
In May of 2024, HB 273 was passed establishing a state green bank as a subsidiary of the Alaska Housing Finance Corporation (AHFC) by way of amendment. Green Bank legislation was originally introduced by Governor Mike Dunleavy in 2021. While eleven house members voted no to the Green Bank amendment, final bill passage included only 3 nays in the house and 2 in the senate.
Who is Behind Alaska Climate Alliance?
The primary authors of the report are from the Pacific Environment and Native Movement. Native Movement is a member of Climate Justice Alliance. Senator Shelley Moore Capito’s office R-WV reported that in December of 2023, Climate Justice Alliance was granted $50M in Inflation Reduction Act funds by the EPA. In a statement by Climate Justice Alliance on receiving the funds “Climate Justice Alliance (CJA) was selected to receive a $50 million grant for its UNITE-EJ (United Network for Impact, Transformation, & Equity in Environmental Justice Communities) application and to serve as a National Grantmaker for EJ TCCGM to provide support to the Western United States (EPA Regions 8-10).” Alaska is in EPA region 10.
According to the Native Movement website:
Native Movement is a proud partner within the Alaska Just Transition Collective, a growing collective of Alaska based organizations with a spectrum of focuses working to support Alaska along a path toward a post-oil economy, an Indigenized Regenerative Economy.
The Native Movement website states:
The Alaska Climate Alliance is a group of 50+ organizations and more than 120 participants united by our desire to align Alaska’s climate action community with Just Transition principles, addressing the climate crisis head-on at all levels of society and shifting our state towards a joyful, interdependent and Indigenous-led future. And “Our alliance grew out of Alaska’s Just Transition movement, and is steered by a coordinating team including staff from Native Movement, The Alaska Center, Native Peoples Action, Fairbanks Climate Action Coalition, and the Southeast Alaska Conservation Council. The Alliance’s first statewide virtual gathering was in October 2020, and has happened monthly since that time.”
In a Q&A with Native Movement, on “What are 3 projects you are working on with your community?” They state:
This is a hard question to answer because of the breadth of our work. We are a statewide organization that supports multiple grassroots efforts across the state spanning issues of LGBTQ+ rights, missing and murdered indigenous women and girls (MMIWG), climate justice, environmental justice, and energy justice. We are supporting communities fighting multiple extractive projects across the state, including the Ambler mine, the Donlin mine, and the Willow oil and gas project.
We also support communities in their regenerative visions, including land back, food sovereignty, clean energy, and expanding broadband access. We hold trainings on decolonizing gender and untangling colonialism, among other things, and are fostering a cohort of community educators across the state.
Along with Pacific Environment, two of the non-profits listed under the Just Transition Collective, Alaska Community Action on Toxics and Fairbanks Climate Action Coalition make up half of the petitioners listed to dismantle the Trans Alaska Pipeline, which through the evil and oppressive extractive economy (capitalism) provides almost half of the revenue to fund our state.
Next Steps to Energy Serfdom
Alaska’s capitalism-in-transition requires one final piece of legislation before reaching, arguably, the point of no return: a Renewable Portfolio Standard (RPS), which would require our co-ops to achieve an increasing percentage of energy by renewable resources by a certain date.
First introduced in 2022 by Governor Dunleavy and introduced again by others in 2023, we were spared as the legislation died in committee this year. The Alaska Climate Alliance is clamoring for the mandate to require increasing percentage of energy to come from unreliable sources of energy, their plan is dead without the heavy hand of statist mandates. Due to the terrible business decision to adopt decarbonization goals, electric co-ops have adopted resolutions supporting an RPS.
Is it a fair question for Alaskans to ask – who are these self-proclaimed manipulators of Alaska’s economy? This upcoming election, it is critical to know where candidates stand on this issue. When they come to your door this fall, be sure to ask them.
The post Risking Alaska’s Energy Exceptionalism (RPS looming) appeared first on Master Resource.
via Master Resource
October 15, 2024 at 01:14AM
