New Study: Systematic Error In 1880-2020 Global Temperature Measurements Inflates Warming By 42%

The globe may have only warmed by 0.41 to 0.83°C in the last 140 years.

According to a new study, weather station data has been shown to non-climatically and erroneously record warmer-than-actual temperatures due to the steady and perpetual aging process almost universally observed in temperature gauges.

When a weather station temperature gauge’s white paint or white plastic ages and darkens, this allows more solar radiation to be absorbed by the gauge than when the gauge is bright white and new. Within a span of just 2 to 5 years, a gauge has been observed to record maximum temperatures 0.46°C to 0.49°C warmer than in gauges that have not undergone an aging process. This artificial warming is not corrected in modern data sets, and it builds up over time – even when the gauges are cleaned or resurfaced every few years.

If these systematic artificial warming errors were to be corrected rather than ignored, the 140-year (1880-’90 to 2010-’20) GISTEMP global warming trend plummets from the current estimate of +1.43°C down to +0.83°C, a 42% differential. The temperature reduction can be even more pronounced – from +1.43°C down to +0.41°C – if a set of conservative assumptions (described in detail in the paper) are removed.

Image Source: Büsing, 2024

Interestingly, when the systematically erroneous temperature data are removed, or homogenized, at different intervals of time (2 years vs. 12 to 30 years, etc.), the global temperature trend – indeed, the long-term global warming trend – can be shown to effectively disappear, depending on the time interval. This can be observed below, in Figure 7.

As this chart illustrates, temperature data can homogenized, or adjusted, to exhibit just about any trend or non-trend the creator of the chart intends to. Data can be bent and manipulated to show strong warming, weak warming, or even no warming over the last 140 years.

Perhaps the modern version of global warming is not nearly as unprecedented or even unusual as it is purported to be.

Image Source: Büsing, 2024

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October 10, 2024 at 08:01PM

A quarter of US science funding is now “diversity, gender, race” based, class warfare research

By Jo Nova

Government funded science is not so much a search for truth as new chapter in the Communist Manifesto

It’s a form of cultural warfare. These funds are not just diluting science, but actively sabotaging it. They enable experts who “decolonize geoscience” and offer a million dollars to the kind of people who say “white supremacy permeates … STEM education”. It is the antithesis of the dispassionate observer, instead the observer is all that matters. If you can’t see your oppression, it’s because they didn’t give you enough money…

Two billion dollars buys a lot of loud shouty voices, amplifying their messages through impressionable teenagers. These pseudo experts don’t just waste offices, they get invited to sit on committees, they raise PhD students, and their words can be used in legal cases and “fact checking” situations. Not to mention, their output trains AI engines too.

Under the Biden-Harris government The US National Science Foundation is gradually being converted to a Neo-Marxist PR machine. A US Senate Committee Report shows that in the first quarter of 2024 more than a quarter of all new NSF grants were written in far left class-war regalia.

“Committee analysis found 3,483 grants, more than ten percent of all NSF grants and totaling over $2.05 billion in federal dollars, went to questionable projects that promoted diversity, equity, and inclusion (DEI) tenets or pushed onto science neo-Marxist perspectives about enduring class struggle.

Redirecting funding to these subjective, ideologically based projects was deliberate. Beginning in 2021, the White House and NSF created scientific integrity policies to require that agencies “[i]ncorporate [Diversity, Equity, Inclusion, and Accessibility] considerations into all aspects of science planning, execution, and communication.”4″

The NSF was already captured by Big Government years ago, this reformation takes it to a new level of cultural warfare:

Americans are losing confidence in science, but perhaps that’s the point?

American confidence in the scientific community has declined significantly since the COVID-19 pandemic. Over a quarter of the American public now reports that they have “no confidence” or “not too much confidence” in scientists; just 12% held those views when the pandemic began. Far fewer Americans believe that science produces a “positive effect on our society,” too. In 2019, almost three out of four Americans felt science had a positive effect. As of fall 2023, that number stands at 57%.

Geoscience got “decolonized” which probably didn’t help find the lithium

The Biden-Harris NSF has responded by sending over $2 billion to projects geared towards advancing divisive social ideologies rather than investigating hard science. In 2022, NSF gave Columbia University $4.4 million for its Implementing Novel Solutions for Promoting Cultural Change in Geoscience Research & Education (INSPIRE) program to “decolonize geoscience.” The following year, NSF awarded $5 million to Arizona State University and two other schools to build “an intersectional learning ecosystem toward gendered racial equity in artificial intelligence education.”

It’s straight out of the Communist Manifesto:

American university campuses have become saturated with DEI initiatives and courses that use neo-Marxist theories to code individuals as members of an “oppressed” or “oppressor” class based on the color of their skin, heritage, or political perspectives. In Marxist theory, the “oppressor” is typically the class or group that holds economic, political, and social power over others, while the “oppressed” are defined as those who must support the oppressors—through their labor or service—to survive. In his Communist Manifesto, Karl Marx called for the dismantling of the current capitalist order through a revolutionary process. He later wrote “revolutionary terror” was needed to bring about a “new society” that would allow the oppressed class to rule.

The Committee found instances where principle investigators who were DEI funded ended up leading protests on campus in support of terrorist groups like Hamas.

One, Shirin Vossough, was known to say ““the ideology of white supremacy permeates all of the nation’s institutions, including our existing system of STEM education”. After that, she got a million dollars:

Shirin Vossoughi is an associate professor of learning sciences at Northwestern University and the co-principal investigator for a $1,034,751 NSF grant awarded in 2023 for a project titled, “Reimagining Educator Learning Pathways Through Storywork for Racial Equity in STEM.” Vossoughi credits Marxist traditions for her decision to teach children “the meaning of ‘genocide’ and ‘apartheid’” after Hamas’s attack against Israel.

If you wanted to stir up trouble on campuses, just fund the right professors eh?

It’s not that girls (whatever they are) need help with science, it’s that science is designed to exclude women:

Thus and verily “science” must be changed to be more girly creative, and less mathematical and unemotional…

Many of the 1,058 grants that fell into the Gender category funded research that investigated the supposed harms of “mislabeling” individuals or using the wrong pronoun to refer to a person. Projects also went beyond programming that might provide more opportunities for girls and women in science; they presumed that scientific disciplines are purposely constructed to exclude them.

And if the science that made our civilization possible is too white, then we must devolve that thinking, we wouldn’t want to be racist, would we?

As described above, grants in the Status category—3,160 awards—received funds for research related to race, ethnicity, or social groups in ways that presumed the sciences were inherently biased against certain communities.
• Social Justice grants—2,585 awards—tended to approach the admirable goal of providing more and better Science, Technology, Engineering, and Math (STEM) education opportunities to students of selected backgrounds by presuming that oppressor (always, white) communities were acting as a deterrent and purposely suppressing participation of other groups.

If an enemy wanted to destroy the things that made the West great, the plan to wreck science would probably look something like this.

 

 

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October 10, 2024 at 04:47PM

Heat transfer and meltwater flows in ice sheets

From Climate Etc.

by Dan Hughes

This post challenges the conventional framework for simulating meltwater flows on glaciers and ice sheets.

Increased melting rates due to potential increases in temperature would add liquid water directly into the oceans. An additional aspect is that the meltwater, on reaching the base of glaciers, might lead to increased sliding of the glaciers and the consequent calving at the terminus.

The World Resources Institute (WRI) has summarized the IPCC AR6 results regarding melting of Greenland and Antarctica ice:

Should warming reach between 2 degrees C (3.6 degrees F) and 3 degrees C (5.4 degrees F), for example, the West Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets could melt almost completely and irreversibly over many thousands of years, causing sea levels to rise by several meters.

Temperature Increase 1.5 C (2.7 F) 2.0 C (3.6 F) 3.0 C (5.4 F)
Global mean sea level rise by 2100 0.28 – 0.55 m(0.92 – 1.80 ft) 0.33 – 0.61 m(1.08 – 2.00 ft) 0.44 – 0.76 m(1.44 – 2.40 ft)

Meltwater flows on the surface of and with glaciers and other ice sheets are important relative to the addition of liquid water into Earth’s oceans, and to bulk motions of the glaciers and ice sheets. Glacial meltwater might flow along the surface like a stream or river, accumulate in surface lakes, flow downward into open crevasses or moulins, accumulate as lakes interior to the ice mass, flow as a sheet of liquid between the ice bottom and bedrock, or flow enclosed in channels partially or completely embedded within the ice mass.

Flows that reach the boundary of the ice sheet deplete the ice mass balance and can contribute to sea level rise if the flow reaches the sea.  Meltwater remaining on the surface of the glacier or ice sheet can refreeze and have no impact on the glacier mass balance.  Flows reaching the base of the glaciers by way of crevasse and moulins are considered to provide potential lubrication and flotation that enhances bulk ice motions.

How solid is the foundation for simulating glacial meltwater flows that are included in projections of ice sheet melting?

Glacial meltwater flows have been modeled for more than four decades using thermal-hydraulic modeling.  The widely used Springer-Hutton formulation is based on principles of continuum mechanics, and detailed mathematical reduction to the standard 1-dimensional channel- average form for engineering applications. A steady-state energy balance equation is applied to flow of liquid water in ice channels embedded in large ice masses. The Spring-Hutter system considers the case of evolution in time and space of the flow area of the channel. Changes in flow area are caused by ice melting and dynamics of the ice in which channels are located. There have been numerous studies providing clarifications, modifications and applications of Spring-Sutter framework.

New paper

I have conducted a detailed analysis of the Spring-Sutter equations and their solutions in this paper [EDHmelt]

The paper clarifies and improves calculations of the role of viscous dissipation of kinetic energy into thermal energy as this physical process appears in models of meltwater flows embedded in and at the boundaries of glaciers and ice sheets.

Meltwater flows on the surface of and within glaciers and other ice sheets are important relative to the addition of liquid water into Earth’s oceans, and to bulk motions of the glaciers and ice sheets. Glacial meltwater might flow along the surface like a stream or river, accumulate in surface lakes, flow downward into open crevasses or moulins, accumulate as lakes interior to the ice mass, flow as a sheet of liquid between the ice bottom and bedrock, or flow enclosed in channels partially or completely embedded within the ice mass.

Flows that reach the boundary of the ice sheet deplete the ice mass balance and can contribute to sea level rise if the flow reaches the sea.  Meltwater remaining on the surface of the glacier or ice sheet can refreeze and have no impact on the glacier mass balance.  Flows reaching the base of the glaciers by way of crevasse and moulins are considered to provide potential lubrication and flotation that enhances bulk ice motions.

A dimensionless form for steady-state energy balance for the liquid, accounting for effects of meltwater on the bulk liquid, is developed and solved. Analytical solutions of the temperature distribution along the channel are developed. The solutions explicitly illustrate effects of viscous dissipation of kinetic energy into heat, and the consequence effects on melting ice at the liquid-ice interface.

The paper shows that:

  • Letting viscous dissipation of kinetic energy go directly into melting is not correct
  • The energy equations are not complete because they do not account for meltwater entering the bulk liquid
  • The Spring-Hutter accounting for meltwater entering the bulk liquid is not correct.

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October 10, 2024 at 04:04PM

Milton Propaganda

“”Hurricane Milton wind speeds at landfall: Another case of exaggerated estimates? I went through all of the highest sustained wind speeds the Hurricane Center listed for several hours around landfall time: The average observed by stations was 67 mph, and the average of the NHC official value was 114 mph. That’s a 47 mph difference. The best positioned station was just offshore of Venice Beach, which measured 78 mph at landfall, which was 42 mph lower than the NHC estimate (120 mph). The same thing happened with Helene: our UAH storm intercept team measured only 60 mph at landfall, whereas the NHC value was 140 mph.””

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October 10, 2024 at 01:38PM