Month: January 2017

Water Vapor is by far the most significant Green House Gas (GHG)

ghgabsoprtionspectrum

The only defined mechanism by which CO2 can affect climate change is by affecting outgoing radiation between the wavelengths of 13 and 18 microns.

  1. Incoming visible radiation has a wavelength between 0.4 and 0.7 microns, and is consistent with a black body of temperature of around 5,200 degree C (the Sun). CO2 is transparent to these wavelengths.
  2. The earth emits IR mostly between 6.5 and 12.5 microns, with a peak near 9.5 microns. 9.5 microns is consistent with a black body of temperature  18 degrees Celsius. CO2 is mostly transparent to those wavelengths.
  3. CO2’s absorbs between 13 and 18 microns, with a peak near 15 microns. Those wavelengths are consistent with a black body of temperature -80 degrees Celsius.
  4. H2O is by far the most significant GHG, and absorbs across the IR Spectrum.
  5. CO2 absorbs a small fraction of the IR Spectrum having 3 narrow peaks at 2.7, 4.3 and 15 microns, all of which largely miss the peak outgoing  IR radiance of the earth at 9.5 microns.
  6. H2O largely absorbs the same IR spectrum as CO2, and is at much higher concentrations in the atmosphere. H2O IR absorption makes CO2 contribution to warming inconsequential.
Advertisements

There simply isn’t enough Anthropogenic CO2 to make a difference

 

 

stadium
Kinnick Stadium, Iowa City, IA.  Home of the Hawkeyes.
  1. Kinnick Stadium holds 70,585 Hawkeye Fans and atmospheric CO2 is 400 ppm. If every Hawkeye Fan represents one atmospheric molecule, then 28 Hawkeye Fans would represent atmospheric CO2.  Man however is not responsible for all the atmospheric CO2, and is responsible for at most 10 of those 28 molecules of CO2. Man’s contribution to atmospheric CO2 is the equivalent of 10 Hawkeye Fans in Kinnick Stadium.
  2. CO2 is a trace gas at 400 ppm, and its contribution to global warming is to react with a very narrow band of outgoing radiation between 13 and 18 microns.

2016 allegedly ‘hottest year’ by immeasurable 1/100th of a degree

Reposted from Climate Depot –   January 18, 2017 Climate Depot

 Two satellite datasets agree: The Temperature Pause lives on: ‘No warming for the last 18 years’

By: Climate DepotJanuary 18, 2017 6:59 PM with 0 comments

Climate Depot Analysis

It’s that time of year again, the annual media ritual of declaring the previous year “the hottest ever!”  And as usual, the media and many activists government scientists are playing fast and loose with the temperature data and.

Former Vice President Al Gore promoted the “hottest year” claim today. “2016 was the hottest year on record — confirmed by NASA and NOAA,” Gore tweeted.  (More media hype here: CNN: 2016 was the hottest year on record — again & 2016 breaks record for hottest year ever)

But scientists seemed to yawn at the news. Extreme Weather expert Dr. Roger Pielke Jr. noted that the media “hottest year” scare stories are simply not working. “Selling climate policy on “hottest year ever” hard because 2016 also had very low disasters & record high crop productivity. It doesn’t scare people,” Pielke wrote. 

Reality Check on “hottest year” claims:

Hottest year claims? Media Ignores The Satellite Record Showing No Warming Since 1998 – Climate data analyst Paul Homewood: ‘There must be something wrong with my old eyes, as I can’t seem to find any mention of the satellite record, which shows no such thing. To recap, both UAH and RSS say that atmospheric temperatures for 2016 statistically tied with 1998, at just 0.02C higher. Neither 2014 or 2015 were anywhere near being a record.’ ‘Satellite measurements of global temperatures are regarded as much more comprehensive, accurate and unaffected by UHI, as Roy Spencer explained in 2014.’
And once again, the “hottest year” claims for 2016 are within the margin of error of the datasets, an immeasurable 1/100 of one degree Celsius. See: 2016 allegedly the ‘hottest year’ by 1/100 of a degree! UK Met Office: 2016 & 2015 temps the same – UK Met Office’s HadCRUT4 dataset shows: Difference in 2015 & 2016 is exactly 0.01 deg difference, 1/100th of a degree warmer in 2016!

The story of the ‘hottest year ever’ in one small table:

Scientists React to ‘Hottest year’ claims:

Climatologist Dr. Judith Curry: “2015 and 2016 were years with a very strong El Niño.” – “Examination of the satellite data record of atmospheric temperatures, 2016 was only 0.02 degrees Celsius warmer than 1998 — a difference that is not statistically significant,” Curry wrote to the Washington Post today.

Climatologist Dr. Roger Pielke Sr., a senior research scientist at the University of Colorado-Boulder, rejected the way global temperatures are measured. “Unfortunately, the surface temperature analysis contains several uncertainties and systematic biases when used to diagnose global warming,” Pielke Sr. wrote in the Washington Post.

“One of them is with respect to land minimum temperatures over land. Rather than measuring changes in heat content through depth in the atmosphere, even slight changes in vertical mixing of heat (even with no net heating) can produce warmer minimum temperatures,” he wrote.

Physicist Dr. Lubos Motl noted today: There is no ‘canonical’ global mean temp: NASA’s temp trends are “almost 20 times larger than the satellites.”

Motl noted: “Both satellite-based teams quantifying the global mean temperature (UAH AMSU, RSS AMSU) concluded that 2016 was 0.02 °C warmer than 1998. These were otherwise very similar “end of a strong El Niño years” separated by 18 years. According to these numbers and nothing else, one could estimate that the warming per century is some 0.11 °C, a negligible amount.”

He added: “There is no ‘canonical’ global mean temperature. It’s an artificial quantity whose detailed value – and whose detailed change in 18 or 100 years – significantly depends on all the details about how the global mean temperature is defined and measured.”

Analysis: There’s Still Less Warming Than Climate Models Predicted, Despite 2016’s Claimed ‘Record Warmth’

Climatologist Dr. John Christy, professor of atmospheric science, University of Alabama in Huntsville: “As the world cools now, the global atmospheric temperature change from February to December has been over one degree. 2017 will be cooler than 2016.”

#

Climate Depot Note: Global temperatures have been holding nearly steady for almost two decades (nearly 18 years according to RSS satellite data). See full Climate Report  here on latest ‘global warming’ claims.

While 2005, 2010, and 2015, 2016 were declared the ‘hottest years’ by global warming proponents, a closer examination revealed that the claims were “based on year-to-year temperature data that differs by only a few HUNDREDTHS of a degree to tenths of a degree Fahrenheit – differences that were within the margin of error in the data.” In other words, global temperatures have essentially held very steady with no sign of acceleration. The media and climate activists hype ‘record’ temperatures that are not even outside the margin of error of the dataset as somehow meaningful.

Even former NASA climatologist James Hansen admitted ‘hottest year’ declarations are “not particularly important.”

MIT climate scientist Dr. Richard Lindzen ridiculed ‘hottest year’ claims in 2015. “The uncertainty here is tenths of a degree. When someone points to this and says this is the warmest temperature on record, what are they talking about? It’s just nonsense. This is a very tiny change period,” Lindzen said. “If you can adjust temperatures to 2/10ths of a degree, it means it wasn’t certain to 2/10ths of a degree.”

So-called ‘hottest year’ claims are just a fancy way of saying that the ‘global warming pause’ has essentially continued.

Background on “Hottest Year” claims & the “Pause” Or “Hiatus”

‘Hide The Decline’ Unveiled: 50 Non-Hockey Stick Graphs Quash Modern ‘Global’ Warming Claims

2016 NOT ‘Hottest’: Satellite data show 2016 NOT warmer than 1998 – Why Ground Based Temperature Fraud Matters

Flashback 1990: AP calls satellite temperatures ‘more accurate’ – But in 2016: AP ignores satellite’s showing 18 year plus ‘standstill’ in global temps -The Tennessean – April 22, 1990: ‘An Associated Press article reported that by the more accurate technique of weather satellite measurement, no long-term warming or cooling trend cold yet be detected.’

The Pause Lives on: Global Satellites: 2016 not Statistically Warmer than 1998 – Climatologist Dr. Roy Spencer: The resulting 2016 annual average global temperature anomaly is +0.50 deg. C, which is (a statistically insignificant) 0.02 deg. C warmer than 1998 at +0.48 deg. C. We estimate that 2016 would have had to be 0.10 C warmer than 1998 to be significantly different at the 95% confidence level. Both 2016 and 1998 were strong El Nino years.

Despite new claims, global warming temperature pause ‘still going strong’

 

Death Of Global Temperature ‘Pause’ Greatly Exaggerated – 2016 Not Statistically Warmer Than 1998

Two satellite datasets agree: The Pause lives on: ‘No warming for the last 18 years’

Two satellite datasets agree: The Pause lives on: ‘No warming for the last 18 years’

Even former NASA climatologist James Hansen admitted ‘hottest year’ declarations are “not particularly important.” MIT climate scientist Dr. Richard Lindzen ridiculed ‘hottest year’ claims in 2015. “The uncertainty here is tenths of a degree. When someone points to this and says this is the warmest temperature on record, what are they talking about? It’s just nonsense. This is a very tiny change period,” Lindzen said. “If you can adjust temperatures to 2/10ths of a degree, it means it wasn’t certain to 2/10ths of a degree.” 11 So-called ‘hottest year’ claims are just a fancy way of saying that the ‘global warming pause’ has essentially continued.

While 2005, 2010, and 2015 were declared the ‘hottest years’ by global warming proponents, a closer examination revealed that the claims were “based on year-to-year temperature data that differs by only a few HUNDREDTHS of a degree to tenths of a degree Fahrenheit – differences that were within the margin of error in the data.” In other words, global temperatures have essentially held very steady with no sign of acceleration. The media and climate activists hype ‘record’ temperatures that are not even outside the margin of error of the dataset as somehow meaningful.

Hottest Year?! NOAA claimed ‘record heat’ in numerous locations that don’t have any actual thermometers

US temps in December: flat 1936-2016

The IPCC Climate Models Fail to Accurately Predict Temperature 

b40bb-haroldhaydenipcc

 

  1. Climate “science” is a “model” based science, its entire credibility is dependent upon the accuracy of its computer models. The very precise climate models are very inaccurate.
  2. The confidence of the climate science “consensus” increased as the climate models increasingly deviated from observations.
  3. 100% of IPCC Climate Models overestimated the expected increase in global temperatures, 100%. A 100% overestimation rate involving this many models represents a systemic bias, not a random error.
  4. The climate models assume a linear relationship between CO2 and temperature. That relationship does not exist.
  5. Real science relies on the scientific method, and reaches a conclusion through falcification (rejecting the null), experimentation, data collection, data analysis and reproduciblity. Climate “science” relies on none of the classical scientific practices, and relies on computer models, peer review and consensus.
  6. The extreme failure of the IPCC Climate Models to accurately model global temperatures means that the IPCC Modelers failed to include significant variables, failed to properly model CO2 or both. Regardless of which is true, the IPCC has failed to make the case that CO2 is the cause of the recent warming.
  7. If climate “science” was a “settled science,” the climate models would be able to accurately predict the climate. They don’t even come close.